News & Views: Market Sizing Update 2025 – Has OA recovered its mojo?

Dan Pollock and Heather Staines • October 21, 2025

Overview


After a rocky couple of years, the open access (OA) market may be finding its footing again. Each year, Delta Think's Market Sizing analyzes the value of the OA scholarly journals market—that is, the revenue generated by providers or the costs incurred by buyers of content.


Our analysis estimates that the OA segment expanded to just under $2.4bn in 2024. Although growth has improved compared with last year’s deceleration, it continues to lag behind the broader historical trend for OA.


The proportion of articles published as OA has declined slightly, likely driven by continued reduction in the output from the large OA publishers. This trend has benefited established publishers, who saw growth in OA activity and revenue as they continued to consolidate their positions.


Looking ahead, OA could soon begin outpacing the broader journals market once again—but likely through different growth drivers than in the past.


Read on to see what those shifts might look like.


Headline findings


Our models suggest the following headlines for the 2024 open access market:

  • Market size: We estimate that the OA market grew to just under $2.4bn in 2024, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. Although an improvement on the low growth the year before, this is still only one quarter of its historic growth rates.
  • Overall journals market: We estimate the total scholarly journals market to have increased by 2.5% in 2024, compared with its long-term low single-digit growth around 5%.
  • OA share of output and value: Just under 50% of all scholarly articles were published as paid-for open access, accounting for slightly over 20% of corresponding market value.
  • Fully OA publishers: Large, fully open access publishers saw a significant drop in their article output in 2024. The share of fully OA articles shrank slightly, but fully OA share of revenue ticked up. We anticipate both volume and value may begin to recover next year.
  • Hybrid OA: Hybrid continues to make up for some of the shrinkage in fully OA output with both hybrid article and revenue growth remaining strong. Slightly higher-priced fully OA options have also likely contributed to fully OA’s increasing revenue.
  • Currency effects: Without currency effects, OA market value would have grown by nearly 11%, and the overall journals market by 7.5%. This suggests that underlying growth in the OA market value has recovered since last year, and the overall market grew above long-term trends.
  • Future outlook: OA publishing has once again outpaced the broader journals market. From 2024 to 2027, we anticipate a CAGR (average growth each year) of 7.7% in OA output and 12% in OA market value-- roughly double last year’s projections, though still just below long-term averages.


A note about our method


As ever, we are very grateful to the organizations that participate in our annual survey, which we anonymize and aggregate to inform our estimates. We will soon send our usual detailed market update and analysis to participants, which breaks out fully OA and hybrid details.


Our market estimates focus on research publications for which money is likely to be paid, either to read or to publish. Our definition of open access excludes “bronze” (public access) and “green” (repository-only) articles.


Rather than simply looking at annual figures, we extract underlying trends and leverage historical data to identify trends and inform strategic decision-making. Each year our underlying data may change as data sources improve and evolve their methods. We continue to refine our view on resulting trends as more information becomes available. Therefore, each year we restate historic figures as needed to keep them up to date.


Trends


OA’s share of output has leveled off – and may stay that way for the next year or two. However, even with that flat output, OA’s share of revenues continues to rise. Authors appear to be choosing slightly higher-priced OA options compared with a few years ago. Hybrid OA is capturing more of the OA mix, yet long-term growth still depends on trends in fully OA output.


Delisting fallout stabilizes


The delisting of journals from Web of Science in 2023 had a knock-on effect across OA-only publishers’ portfolios. Quality concerns centered on special issues, which had been a major driver of OA growth. It seemed unlikely that (many of) these articles would find other outlets. Last year, we noted that this disruption stalled fully OA growth. This year’s data suggest that the bleeding has largely stopped, with fully OA articles output down only slightly in 2024.


OA output has plateaued


OA’s total share of output has hovered around 50% (± one percentage point) since 2022. Last year we asked whether OA had peaked. The evidence points to a plateau, at least for now. While a major driver of (fully) OA growth has been removed – or at least reduced – publishers are adapting and beginning to recover. We anticipate that fully OA output will begin growing again next year, outpacing the broader market, though not returning to its “glory days” of a few years ago.


Revenue growth continues—slower but steadier


After a pause in progress last year, OA continues to take share of total publishing revenue, albeit at a slower pace. Authors have shifted towards established publishers, who saw strong increases in both OA volume and revenue, even as the overall OA market has softened.


Authors appear to be paying slightly higher publication fees, likely for two reasons:

  1. Fully OA APCs charged by the big corporates are often (though not always) higher than those from OA-only publishers.
  2. Hybrid OA APCs are higher still – and hybrid’s share is growing.


Subscription output still matters


Subscription (non-OA) publishing output and revenue continue to grow, even though its market share is slowly shrinking.


The value gap narrows


Since 2022, around 50% of published output has been OA, accounting for about 20% of total market value. By 2027, we anticipate OA’s value share could reach 25%, even if output remains stable. OA articles still generate less revenue per paper than subscription articles, but that gap is likely to keep narrowing as publication fees increase—a trend we project will continue.


Mixed-model deals remain a wildcard


The impact of transformative and mixed-model deals on pricing dynamics is not yet clear. Consolidation enables large publishers to grow OA revenues, but if read-and-publish deals have price caps, some OA output moving from smaller OA publishers to larger ones might not translate into higher OA revenue overall.


Policy and funding shifts may reshape the field


It is too soon to tell how recent changes in US policy and funding may influence market valuations, but these shifts could alter both pricing and output patterns in coming years.


Early indications from Delta Think’s Researcher Survey suggest that a significant portion of researchers expect to publish fewer articles, including some who specify fewer OA articles. A follow up survey underway now will delve into the reasons behind this anticipated change.


Conclusion


At this time last year, we identified 2023 as a potential inflection point for open access (OA) and asked whether its explosive growth had peaked. The data from 2024 suggest otherwise: OA output has not peaked, but it has plateaued, holding steady around the 50% mark. The surge driven by special issues has subsided, but the worst effects of journal delisting now appear to be behind us. Fully OA publishing is stabilizing and poised for renewed - albeit more modest - growth in 2025.


Meanwhile, as fully OA steadies, hybrid OA and large corporate publishers are consolidating their positions. Hybrid output and revenue continue to rise, outpacing the broader market and poised to represent a sizeable portion of OA revenues within the next two years. We estimate that by 2027, hybrid could make up one-third of OA output and account for nearly half of OA market value-- a reflection of higher prices and a shift in author preference toward more established publishing venues.


Looking ahead, we expect the OA market to continue its recovery, with value growth outstripping output growth. OA’s share of total market value is projected to rise to 25% by 2027, even if the overall output stays roughly the same. This suggests a steady increase in publication fees and the normalization of higher-value OA publishing models.



The underlying demand for OA remains strong. The market has effectively self-corrected, with established players capitalizing on shifts in author behavior. The hypergrowth era may be over, but OA appears ready to reclaim its position as the fastest-growing segment of scholarly publishing--this time driven by consolidation, strategic pricing, and evolving business models.


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Our industry does not systematically report comprehensive data about market volumes or value. So, any market sizing is an approximation, and figures should be taken as approximate. Subscribers to our Data & Analytics Tool can drill into the numbers in much greater depth, including analyzing fully OA vs. hybrid OA details, society-specific output and subscription output. Please get in touch if you want to know more.


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This article is © 2025 Delta Think, Inc. It is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Please do get in touch if you want to use it in other contexts – we’re usually pretty accommodating.



TOP HEADLINES


NERL Partners with OA Switchboard to Advance Transparency in Open Access – October 15, 2025



"NERL is pleased to announce that it has signed a 3-year agreement with OA Switchboard, an intermediary that facilitates the transmission of standardized OA publication data between institutions, publishers, and funders. By joining in this collaborative effort...NERL members will be supporting global OA infrastructure with metadata that is authoritative, transparent, and timely."


De Gruyter Brill to Add 66 More Journals to its Subscribe to Open (S2O) Program in 2026 – October 1, 2025



"In 2026, De Gruyter Brill will significantly expand its Subscribe to Open (S2O) program, DG2O, by transitioning 66 additional De Gruyter journals to open access. This brings the total number of titles in the program to 124, marking a major milestone in the publisher’s ongoing commitment to making high-quality research accessible worldwide."


AAAS: Response on NIH public access policy – September 24, 2025


"AAAS has responded to the National Institutes of Health’s request for input on its plan for “Maximizing Research Funds by Limiting Allowable Publishing Costs,” as released in July 2025. AAAS’ response applauds NIH for addressing the rising Article Processing Charges that scientific journal publishers are increasingly charging NIH-supported scientists to publish their findings."


OA JOURNAL LAUNCHES


American Society of Anesthesiologists Launches New Journal Anesthesiology Open – October 1, 2025


"The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) today announced the launch of Anesthesiology Open, a new online, peer-reviewed, open access journal published by Wolters Kluwer. Anesthesiology Open’s website and manuscript submission site are now live."

Impelsys and Delta Think Join Forces to Expand Strategy and Technology Capabilities

By Lori Carlin • December 4, 2025
Impelsys and Delta Think Join Forces to Expand Strategy and Technology Capabilities for Publishing, Scholarly Communications, Education, and Healthcare Communities

News & Views: Market Sizing Supplement 2025 – Your Mileage May Vary

By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines • December 2, 2025
Overview Each year, our scholarly market sizing update and analysis goes way beyond open access headlines. One consistent finding is that market share of open and subscription access is highly dependent on subject area. This month we look at how to best use our Delta Think Data and Analytics Tool (DAT) to understand and analyze these variations. With coverage of approximately 220 detailed subject areas, the data shows that headlines can sometimes mask important detail. Background Since we began our scholarly journal market analyses in 2017, one of our core objectives has been to enable deep analysis of our headline findings. Our annual market share updates represent a summing of data – more than 200 detailed subject areas, 200 or so countries, also split by society vs. non-society journal ownership. This level of detail is clearly too much for our monthly short-form analyses, so we present the market-wide headlines in our annual updates. However, by picking one subject area as an example, we can see how much nuance lies beneath the surface, and why these variations matter. Subscribers to DAT can use our interactive tools to quickly and easily see each level of detail and filter for just those relevant to their organization. Market Share Variation by Subject Area Our latest market headlines suggested that open access (OA) accounted for just under 50% of article output in 2024. However, this headline proportion varies considerably by subject area.

Charleston Conference 2025 Reflections

By Lori Carlin & Meg White • November 19, 2025
Navigating Uncertainty, Innovation, and the Winds of Change As the Charleston Conference 2025 wrapped up, one thing was clear: scholarly communication continues to evolve against a backdrop of uncertainty: economic, technological, and policy-driven. Yet amid the turbulence, conversations throughout the week pointed toward resilience, adaptability, and even optimism. As Tony Hobbs observed during the Shifting Tides policy session, “the good news for scholarly communication is that due to technology advances, it is now possible to sail into the wind.” The Elephant in the Room: Doing More with Less Heather Staines Every conversation I had in Charleston seemed to circle back to one thing: budgetary uncertainty. Whether the concern was policy changes like potential caps on overhead or shifting grant funding or the ripple effects of declining enrollment, both domestic and international, everyone was asking how to do more with fewer resources. This theme ran through the plenary Leading in a Time of Crisis, Reclaiming the Library Narrative, and even the lightning sessions, a shared recognition that we’re all trying to redefine what “enough” looks like. What stood out was how data-driven decision-making has become essential. Libraries, publishers, and service providers are not just analyzing what to add, but what to let go of, all in an effort to find a new balance. And then there’s AI. We have moved beyond “sessions about AI” to “AI everywhere.” I will admit that I once thought AI was a solution in search of a problem, but now it’s woven through nearly every conversation. Librarians are leading the way on AI literacy, while publishers and service providers are using AI to innovate to meet changing research needs. The uncertainty is real but so is the shared determination to adapt, learn, and move forward together. The Long Arm of the Law and Its Reach into Scholarly Communication Meg White One of the things I love about Charleston is that there is always a moment that challenges me to reframe how I think about the work we do. This year’s Long Arm of the Law session did exactly that. It was a vivid reminder that the legal and policy currents swirling around us are not abstractions; they shape our ecosystem in ways we can’t afford to ignore. Paul Rosenzweig set the stage with a fascinating and lively walk through the history of executive orders. Hearing that Washington issued just eight while later presidents relied on them more frequently primarily to advance political agendas made the evolution very real. What stood out was the fine line between legitimate executive authority and overreach, and how easily those boundaries can blur. Nancy Weiss then brought the conversation directly into our lane with her analysis of an Executive Order directing the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS) to reduce its activities to the bare legal minimum. Her experience as former General Counsel gave us an inside view of what such a directive could mean for libraries, museums, and cultural programs, all places where so much of our community’s work takes root. Sessions like this are why Charleston continues to be invaluable to me. They stretch my understanding, give me new context, and remind me that staying informed is part of how we navigate change together. Data-Driven Insights: The 2025 Author and Researcher Survey Lori Carlin My week was cut unusually short (for me) by other meetings I had to fly off to, but I still managed to squeeze in 2.5 days of interesting sessions, discussions, and ‘business casual’ gatherings. The first two events I attended this year were definite highlights, both of which were the brainchild of and brilliantly orchestrated by my colleague, Heather Staines – the Vendor Meetup on Monday evening and the Leadership Breakfast on Tuesday morning. Both were jam packed and filled with lively conversation. If you’re not familiar, the Vendor Meetup is an open, casual gathering (sponsored this year by Get FTR) designed to give vendor representatives, especially early career attendees, who attend only for Vendor Day a chance to socialize and network, something they often miss when they’re in and out in a single day, but all are welcome to attend! The Leadership Breakfast, a smaller invitation-only event designed to give a more intimate networking experience within the larger Charleston Conference, is always a thoughtful session centered on a pressing issue of the day, and this year was no exception. The discussion focused on sustainability across the entire scholarly communication ecosystem—from funders to libraries to publishers. Frankly, no one can unhear the words of one of the panelists (a library director) when he commented that his budget has dropped from ~$7M to ~$5.4M in the last 24 months … with more to come. Finally, I’m a little biased, but I dare say I and my panelists were very pleased with the session I moderated focused on the impact of US research funding changes, which highlighted info from Delta Think’s Spring 2025 Author and Researcher Survey, along with how publishers who participated used the data to inform their strategies. We also had a librarian on the panel who informed the audience about the impact of these changes on universities overall and libraries in particular. As you may know, the survey data showed rising concern about institutional support, with many researchers rethinking how they publish and participate in conferences. Respondents also described how tightening budgets are straining peer review and research dissemination, while responses varied sharply between U.S.-based and international authors, reflecting distinct policy and institutional pressures, it also showed that the impact is being felt globally. In the tradition of Charleston, what made the session so powerful was the discussion. Colleagues from societies, publishers, and libraries focused on how they are using these insights to understand the challenges and to act on them. From adjusting publishing strategies to helping researchers to growing relationships in other markets, to shaping advocacy and outreach activities, organizations are using these insights to inform resource and budget direction in innovative ways. For me, that was the real takeaway: turning evidence into collaboration, and progress. Even in uncertain times. We’re running the survey again now with plans to compare results to the Spring version. If you’re interested, there is still time to sign up! End of An Era (Two, in Fact!) This year’s conference marked a pivotal moment: the first without the in-person presence of founder, Katina Strauch (though we were grateful for her virtual participation), and the well-earned retirement of longtime Conference Director Anthony Watkinson, who rang his iconic bell one last time. We would not be here without them and their visionary colleagues who built this community from the ground up. Thank you, Katina and Anthony. Charting What Comes Next If there was one metaphor that captured Charleston 2025, it was motion; not adrift, but deliberate progress in the face of resistance. From policy updates to AI integration to the enduring strength of the scholarly community, the week’s sessions affirmed that innovation often takes root during uncertainty. As Tony Hobbs reminded us, even headwinds can propel us forward — if we learn how to adjust our sails.

News & Views Webinar: Market Sizing Update 2025

By Heather Staines • November 6, 2025
We are proud to share a video recording of our October News & Views companion online discussion forum! Join us for our annual update on the volume and revenue associated with Open Access publishing. If you missed the session, or if you attended and would like to watch/listen again, or share forward with friends, please feel free!

Join the Fall 2025 Author/Researcher Survey

By Lori Carlin & Meg White • October 13, 2025
Collaborate with Delta Think to uncover how funding and policy uncertainty continue to reshape the research ecosystem — and gain tailored insights for your community.

Smart AI, Smarter Scholarship

By Lori Carlin & Meg White • September 25, 2025
Introduction: One question, two paths  A recent essay in The Conversation posed the question, “Is ChatGPT making us stupid?” The author examined emerging research suggesting that over-reliance on AI tools for writing can dull critical thinking, originality, and even memory retention. But as the author points out, AI has the potential to augment human intelligence when used well , acting as a catalyst for deeper thinking rather than a shortcut around it. We agree and seek to guide our clients in determining how to use AI to strengthen research and scholarship. From concern to opportunity When AI is approached as a collaborator, it sparks creativity, deepens inquiry, accelerates problem-solving, and amplifies creativity. It can strengthen teams, enhance services, and improve efficiencies across the publishing enterprise. Turning Ideas into Action Here’s how Delta Think can help you transform smart AI potential into purposeful, strategic action: Strategy and Market Research Focus: Identify where AI can deliver the most value for your organization, grounded in community needs and behaviors. Delta Think Approach: Gather and analyze evidence through quantitative and qualitative methods to uncover how your community – your researchers, authors, reviewers, and readers – are using AI now or, better yet, where and how they could be using it in the future. Marrying their unmet needs with your strategic goals creates your roadmap to future success. 2. Build vs. Buy Decisions for AI-Powered Products Focus: Develop proprietary AI solutions, partner with trusted vendors, or combine the best of both approaches to suit your needs. Delta Think Approach: Assess your current state and future needs, design decision frameworks that weigh cost, capability, risk, speed-to-market, and long-term scalability, and build the approach that will work best to support your business goals and community needs. 3. AI Policy and Governance Focus: Ensure responsible, transparent, and ethical AI use that safeguards scholarly integrity. Delta Think Approach: Facilitate the development of your AI governance with the creation of important guardrails and policies, working to mitigate bias and hallucination risks, safeguarding research integrity while enabling innovation. 4. UX/UI Testing for AI Products and Features Focus: Design AI experiences that enhance human engagement. Delta Think Approach: Test results, interfaces, prompts, and transparency signals to keep users informed, empowered, and confident in your products and tools. 5. Licensing and Partnership Strategy Focus: Leverage commercial arrangements to unlock AI potential while aligning with your mission and values. Delta Think Approach: Guide you through licensing agreements, proprietary data partnerships, and collaborations that create sustainable competitive advantage and strategic revenue streams. Turning Ideas into Impact By reframing the conversation from Can AI substitute scholarship? to How does AI amplify scholarship? , publishers can lead the next wave of innovation. Delta Think’s collaborative approach ensures that your organization’s adoption of AI enhances creativity, critical thinking, and trust. We can help you map out your bespoke AI-strategy roadmap, develop new products and services, test prototypes, and design governance guidelines. Reach out today or schedule some time at the Frankfurt Book Fair (10/14-16) to discuss how Delta Think’s expertise and proven methodologies can help your organization unlock key insights and drive innovation.

News & Views: How much will cuts to NSF funding affect the future of scholarly publishing?

By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines • September 9, 2025
How might planned cuts to funding of the US National Science Foundation affect scholarly output? In our last News & Views we analyzed how the headline cuts might apply to relevant activities. This month we examine how journals may be impacted and model some scenarios quantifying the impact on global scholarly output. Background The US National Science Foundation is an independent US federal agency that supports science and engineering across the US and its territories. In its 2024 financial year (FY) 1 , it spent around $9.4 billion, funding approximately 25% of all federally supported research conducted by US colleges and universities. In July we looked at how reported funding cuts and NSF budget cuts proposed by the US Government might affect the NSF’s output of research papers. We found that in the near term the effects would be limited, as the cuts focus on NSF activites that produce low volumes of papers. However, cuts proposed over the coming year may have a more profound effect as they are deep and affect research activities. We have also previously analyzed proposed cuts to funding of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). We noted how cuts to the world’s largest producer of biomedical research could have a profound effect on publication outputs. So how do cuts to the NSF stack up? The effects on journals As ever, the headlines and averages are unevenly distributed, so we looked at how individual journals might be affected. 

News & Views: Will cuts to National Science Foundation funding affect scholarly publishing activity?

By Dan Pollock & Heather Staines • July 29, 2025
The US Government has planned cuts to funding of the US National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2025 and 2026. Before we can undertake a full analysis of how these cuts might affect publishers, we must unpack some data. This month we put the cuts in context, looking at how the cuts impact research and the scale of NSF output. And we find they may not affect research in the ways the headlines suggest. We will follow up with a future analysis modelling specific scenarios of impacts on publisher submissions. Background The US National Science Foundation is an independent US federal agency that supports science and engineering across the US and its territories. In its 2024 financial year (FY) 1 , it spent around $9.4 billion, funding approximately 25% of all federally supported research conducted by US colleges and universities. In May 2025, the New York Times (NYT) published an article analyzing proposed cuts to NSF funding by the current US Government. The NYT’s analysis suggested a 51% cut in funding from 1 January through 21 May 2025, with a further 56% reduction proposed for next year 2 . We have previously analyzed effects of proposed cuts to funding of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The proposed cuts to the NSF are deeper, so might they have an even greater negative effect on publication volumes? Understanding what the cuts apply to The 51% cut in 2025 covers 140 days, equivalent to a 20% annualized cut. So could we see the same level of reduction in papers this year? And could this be followed be a 56% drop next year, as the 2026 cuts cover a full year? As with our analysis of the NIH, we need to understand how the changes in funding translate into research activities, and thence into corresponding volumes and timing of publication output. We therefore analyzed the NSF’s own budgetary figures to put the cuts into context. 

Delta Think’s Survey Results: What 13,000 Researchers Revealed About the Fallout from US Funding Cuts

By Lori Carlin and Meg White • July 24, 2025
This spring, Delta Think collaborated with 27 professional societies and associations to launch a Global Author/Researcher Survey to understand the ripple effect of US government research funding cuts. Our goal was to explore how researchers are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape, especially as US federal funding and policy decisions cast long shadows over the global research community.  More than 13,000 researchers across every major discipline and 135 countries shared their voices through our survey. While the detailed findings are deep and wide-ranging, one thing is clear: the ground is shifting. Uncertainty Is Driving Change in Research Behavior Delta Think deeply analyzed the data by six major disciplines: Health Sciences, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences, Engineering & Technology, Social Sciences, Arts & Humanities. Nuances vary by each main field, but some factors were universal. US-based researchers are signaling deep concern – and they’re bracing for change. Many anticipate reductions across publishing output, participation in peer review, and conference attendance. For example, 62% of US authors across all disciplines expect to publish fewer articles in the next 1–2 years, citing policy and funding challenges . “My research progress is now in ‘conservative mode’ in case funding is pulled from us with no notice. We cannot plan further out and have lost our trust in the federal government.” Primary Investigator (PI) at a US Academic Medical Center But the concerning news isn’t limited to the US. International researchers indicated their intention to pull away from US-based journals, threatening to reshape the global flow of research. In fact, a full 50% of international authors across all disciplines indicated that it is now important to them to submit their manuscripts to non-US journals. “We're doing everything we can to reduce our connections to the US, including looking for journals to publish in that are not based in the US.” Mid-Career PI, Biological Sciences, Canada Top Concerns: What Keeps Researchers Up at Night? One of the clearest patterns that emerged is the contrast in what researchers view as their most urgent challenges: For US researchers , the top concern is straightforward: elimination of research funding . This fear extends beyond specific grants—it reflects a deep anxiety about career stability, institutional viability, and the future of scientific advancement. For international researchers , the primary worry is academic freedom and collaboration , with many expressing concerns about losing access to US research infrastructure, data, and professional networks if international cooperation is reduced. While these represent the top concerns, the survey results reveal many others by discipline, career stage, and other factors, including specific community details for each of the 27 participating societies and organizations upon which to develop their future strategies. Looking Ahead: Tracking Trends with Fall 2025 Survey This spring’s survey was just the beginning. Delta Think will conduct a follow-up survey in October/November 2025 to track how attitudes and behaviors continue to shift. This next phase will allow us and the participating organizations to move from snapshot to trend — providing deeper insight into the lasting impact of funding and policy uncertainty. Joining in for Survey 2 is NOT limited to Survey 1 participating organizations. All are welcome to participate in this next round and have access to the deep data behind these high-level insights and much more. Turning Ideas into Action The Delta Think team designed this initiative not just to gather data, but also to support our partners across the scholarly ecosystem. By combining rigorous research design with deep industry context, we’re helping publishers, societies, and institutions make informed, strategic decisions in uncertain times. If you're interested in learning more about the findings, discussing how they apply to your organization, or joining the Fall 2025 survey, we’d love to connect. Please email Lori Carlin to start the conversation.

News & Views: How much will cuts to NIH funding affect scholarly publishing activity?

By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines • June 24, 2025
Overview As the extent of proposed cuts to the US Government’s funding of US Federal research becomes apparent, we ask how this might affect scholarly publishers. US bodies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) produce significant volumes of research. A fall in their funding could lead to significant drops in research and may have negative implications for scholarly publishers around the world. Background The NIH is the world’s largest funder of biomedical research. We have previously noted that the NIH accounts for a significant share of papers published. At the time of writing (early June 2025), some notable reports about cuts to NIH funding have emerged: An open letter ( “The Bethesda Declaration” ) dated June 9, 2025, to the current head of the NIH, in which signatories (who are NIH staff) note that: Since January 20, 2025, the NIH has “terminated 2,100 research grants totaling around $9.5 billion and an additional $2.6 billion in contracts through end of April”. An analysis published by the New York Times in early June 2025 of the grants ended or delayed: From the January 20 Inauguration through April 2025, the administration ended 1,389 awards and delayed sending funding to more than 1,000 additional projects. The agency awarded $1.6 billion (20%) less compared with the same period last year. A proposal from the White House dated May 2, 2025, reduces the CDC’s budget by $3.6 billion and the NIH’s total budget by about $18 billion (a cut of almost 40%, according to the NYT ). Analysis from JAMA Network notes that Congress proposed cuts of 43% to NIH, or $20bn per year. “Assuming that some efficiencies are possible … a 40% cut in NIH spending will translate into a smaller change in effective distributions, we can … estimate that a 33% reduction in NIH funding would be associated with a 15.3% reduction in patents associated with new drugs…” Could these cuts to NIH funding have a noticeable effect on publication volumes? To answer this, we need to understand how the changes in funding translate into corresponding publication output. How deep do the cuts go? The first stage of our analysis puts the reports into the context of the parent funding, so we can estimate the best- and worst-case scenarios of the cuts.