News & Views: Falling Dollar, Rising Prices

Overview As the extent of proposed cuts to the US Government’s funding of US Federal research becomes apparent, we ask how this might affect scholarly publishers. US bodies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) produce significant volumes of research. A fall in their funding could lead to significant drops in research and may have negative implications for scholarly publishers around the world. Background The NIH is the world’s largest funder of biomedical research. We have previously noted that the NIH accounts for a significant share of papers published. At the time of writing (early June 2025), some notable reports about cuts to NIH funding have emerged: An open letter ( “The Bethesda Declaration” ) dated June 9, 2025, to the current head of the NIH, in which signatories (who are NIH staff) note that: Since January 20, 2025, the NIH has “terminated 2,100 research grants totaling around $9.5 billion and an additional $2.6 billion in contracts through end of April”. An analysis published by the New York Times in early June 2025 of the grants ended or delayed: From the January 20 Inauguration through April 2025, the administration ended 1,389 awards and delayed sending funding to more than 1,000 additional projects. The agency awarded $1.6 billion (20%) less compared with the same period last year. A proposal from the White House dated May 2, 2025, reduces the CDC’s budget by $3.6 billion and the NIH’s total budget by about $18 billion (a cut of almost 40%, according to the NYT ). Analysis from JAMA Network notes that Congress proposed cuts of 43% to NIH, or $20bn per year. “Assuming that some efficiencies are possible … a 40% cut in NIH spending will translate into a smaller change in effective distributions, we can … estimate that a 33% reduction in NIH funding would be associated with a 15.3% reduction in patents associated with new drugs…” Could these cuts to NIH funding have a noticeable effect on publication volumes? To answer this, we need to understand how the changes in funding translate into corresponding publication output. How deep do the cuts go? The first stage of our analysis puts the reports into the context of the parent funding, so we can estimate the best- and worst-case scenarios of the cuts. 

The Society for Scholarly Publishing’s (SSP) 47th Annual Meeting , themed “Reimagining the Future: Scholarly Publishing at the Intersection of Value and Values,” challenged the scholarly community to think beyond the content that we produce and the structures and systems we build—and to focus on how we communicate their purpose and impact . As proud SSP volunteers, Annual Meeting sponsors, and Contributor level supporters of the Generations Fund , Delta Think was honored to support this dynamic event, which continues to elevate the conversation around diversity, integrity, innovation, and sustainability . The opening keynote from marine conservation biologist Dr. David Shiffman set the tone: publishing research is necessary—but not sufficient . To drive change, he argued, we must tell our story , connect with audiences beyond the academy, and make the case for scholarship, science, and research in an increasingly skeptical world. Inspired by that message, here are our team's key reflections from the conference: Engagement and Mentorship: The Power of Community Heather Staines One of my favorite moments was participating in the President’s Early Career Roundtable . These emerging professionals—thoughtful, passionate, and diverse—reminded me that engagement is a two-way street. We’re not just telling our story—we’re empowering others to tell theirs. As SSP President, I’ve had the privilege of contributing to the organization’s new strategic plan, the launch of the EPIC Awards, and the success of the Generations Fund. But nothing compares to the energy and optimism I saw in that room. The future of scholarly publishing is in good hands. Innovation: AI Is Here (and Evolving Fast) Diane Harnish AI has officially graduated from theoretical to practical. We saw publishers showcasing real-life integrations—tools in production, monetization pilots, and governance frameworks taking shape. From my panel on AI and copyright to collaborative case studies across the conference, the narrative has shifted. We're not asking if AI belongs—we're asking how to align it with our mission. Like the keynote’s call to combine research with action, AI’s value will depend on whether we use it to advance transparency, engagement, and ethical progress . Output vs. Outcomes: Data as Storytelling Bonnie Gruber From predictive analytics to workflow tools, data and analytics were everywhere at SSP 2025. But more importantly, we saw them being used to support narratives—about trust, about quality, about community needs. Sessions from Jennifer Regala, Lettie Conrad, and others highlighted the power of metadata, usage metrics, and audience segmentation to help publishers move beyond reporting to driving real-world results . As Dr. Shiffman illustrated through shark science, impact only matters when people understand it. That’s where analytics come in. Impact: From Evidence to Advocacy  Lori Carlin First, Dr. Shiffman’s message about articulating value hit a chord with me, as I’ve been concerned about how we move beyond the ‘four walls’ of scholarly publishing and our own community to ensure the public at large understands the great value and immense importance of research, and why they can TRUST science. Also, I am always personally grateful and humbled by the vast network of friends and colleagues I have managed to build across the industry over the many years I’ve been involved with SSP. I remember back in my work ‘youth’ attending a Frankfurt Book Fair with a colleague who is now a good friend (and whom I won’t call out and embarrass) and being unable to walk 2 feet through Hall 4.2 without stopping to talk to someone he knew. I thought “I hope I reach that level of connection and comfort someday”…and SSP always makes me feel like I have ‘arrived’ in that sense. The number of folks I know as I walk through the meeting is astonishing to me, and I’m always grateful for the many opportunities to make new connections throughout the meeting as well. And then there was the tone, the mood, the vibe in the air this year. Yes, most/many of us are concerned about the current funding landscape and policy changes, and certainly attendees showed and voiced their concern. But there was hope too – a sense of community, we are in this together, and the coming together of largely like minds with like concerns. And not to gripe or just share fears, but to think about solutions and ways to address current challenges; ways to work together to identify opportunities and positive pathways to address change. Finally, there was Heather’s President’s Address during the awards luncheon, which brought much of the room to tears … an apt end to an equally challenging and rewarding year in scholarly publishing. Ideas into Action: How Delta Think Can Help Dr. Shiffman’s keynote was about bridging the gap between knowledge and change. Publishing alone isn’t enough. We must communicate why our work matters, engage audiences inside and outside academia, and ensure that scholarly publishing not only reflects but drives societal progress. At Delta Think, we help publishers do just that— by grounding strategy in data, aligning with values, and building frameworks that support sustainable, evidence-based storytelling. Whether you're navigating AI, open access, research integrity, or the next wave of policy change, we’re here to help you turn insights into action. Let’s shape a stronger, clearer narrative—together. Let’s turn your SSP takeaways into action. 📩 Contact us at info@deltathink.com RESULTS COMING SOON: Researcher/Author Survey + Part II Analysis is nearly complete on the more than 13,000 responses to our Researcher/Author Survey, conducted in partnership with 27 professional societies and organizations. This data will generate systematic, quantitative insights from the market, and the accompanying analysis will support evidence-based strategy development and scenario planning within a rapidly evolving funding landscape and policy framework. Participants will receive detailed findings, but we are looking forward to sharing high-level insights with the wider community along the way. Based on the overwhelming response to this project and the extraordinary and ongoing shifts in US federal policy, we expect to conduct this survey again in the fourth quarter of this year to start to document trends. If you need more information, please don’t hesitate to reach out by emailing us at info@deltathink.com .

Background: Anticipating Change Earlier this year, the Delta Think team began reflecting on what potential decreases in United States federal funding could mean for research and scholarship both nationally and internationally. We knew our industry and clients also shared these uncertainties, so we embarked on an effort to capture market data for a more grounded understanding of trends. With analytics in hand, we could help our community begin to measure the impact of changes in the times to come and make informed decisions and plans. Methods: Transparency and Rigor Delta Think designed a researcher/author survey that explored topics such as potential research and publication output, peer review availability, conference attendance, society support, research concerns and sentiments, and more. Twenty-seven organizations, associations, and societies participated with us across fields in the health sciences, life sciences, physical sciences, engineering & technology, social sciences, and arts & humanities. A unique survey link was distributed to each participating organization who then shared it with their constituents between March 25th and May 4th. This outreach gave us unprecedented and comprehensive access to the scholarly community, enabling immense confidence in the data. The data generated will deliver systematic, quantitative insights from the market, and the accompanying analysis will support evidence-based strategy development and scenario planning within a rapidly evolving funding landscape and policy framework. Results: Initial Demographics Full results and analysis are in process, but we can share an overview of the response counts by segment:  We received 13,246 total responses from 138 countries; 60% of responses were from the US. All fields were well represented with Health Sciences and Life Sciences leading the way with more than 50% of responses. Physical Sciences and Engineering & Technology followed with 35% of responses, and those in the Arts & Humanities and Social Sciences saw close to 15%. Career stage also saw a good balance with about 34% identifying as Grad Students/Residents or in their Early Career, 31% in Mid-Career, and 30% Senior. Respondents worked across many different roles including 33% who selected Professor/Faculty/Educator, 12% who selected Healthcare Provider or Physician/Surgeon, and 10% who selected Researcher/Analyst. Conclusions: Stay Tuned and Sign Up Based on the large number of responses, we have a high degree of confidence in the data, and we know it will provide meaningful, evidence-based, and actionable intelligence not only for the 27 participating organizations, but also for the larger scholarly communications industry. Participants will receive the detailed findings, but we will share high-level insights along the way with the wider community. Based on the overwhelming response to this project and the extraordinary and ongoing shifts in US federal policy, we expect to conduct this survey again in the fourth quarter of this year to start to document trends. Current survey partners as well as new societies, associations, and organizations are encouraged to participate, so please contact us at info@deltathink.com for more information or to ensure you are included. This Author/Researcher Survey is a logical and natural extension of our work. Delta Think consultants specialize in uncovering evidence for our clients, discovering what that evidence means for them, and using the knowledge gained to build customer-driven, actionable business and publishing strategies. Through the expert utilization of innovative and creative market research techniques and analysis, we are committed to doing our part in support of the scholarly communication community, putting our ideas into action. We will also be attending the upcoming SSP Annual Meeting, so please reach out to set up a meeting with one of the team to hear more in Baltimore.

“I had a wonderful teacher about animal behavior.” – Jane Goodall Jane Goodall was renowned for her ability to understand chimpanzees in the wild simply by observing their day-to-day behaviors. Her subjects were her teachers. She immersed herself in their natural environment, which allowed her to gather authentic insights into her subjects’ social structures, tool use, communication, and cultural behaviors. This ethnographic style of research has now been adopted by the business world to gain deeper insights into customer needs, workflows, and challenges. What is Contextual Inquiry? Contextual Inquiry, as it’s frequently called in the commercial world, is a user-centered research method. Like Dr. Goodall in the field in Tanzania, Contextual Inquiry involves observing and interviewing users in their natural environments while they perform routine tasks, allowing market researchers to understand user behaviors, goals, motivations, and pain points in real-world contexts. The methodology is guided by four key principles: Context: Observations and interviews occur in the user’s actual environment. Partnership: Researchers collaborate with users to understand their processes. Interpretation: Insights are shared with users during the interview for clarification. Focus: The interaction is steered toward topics relevant to the research scope. Why Contextual Inquiry? Contextual Inquiry illuminates user behavior and workflows and can be used to inform solutions including product development, processes, and policies. 1. Deep Understanding of User Needs By observing users in their natural environment, contextual inquiry uncovers hidden needs, pain points, and behaviors that users may not articulate in surveys or traditional interviews. This identifies solutions that address real user challenges rather than assumed ones. 2. Authentic Data Collection Unlike lab-based studies or self-reported methods, Contextual Inquiry captures authentic behaviors as they occur. This helps reveal workarounds, unconscious habits, and environmental factors that influence user behavior. 3. User-Centered Design and Focus The method places users at the center, ensuring solutions are tailored to their needs and preferences. 4. Reduced Risk and Costs By identifying real-world user behaviors and challenges, Contextual Inquiry increases the likelihood that resulting solutions, products, processes, and policies meet user needs. 5. Informed Strategy Insights from contextual inquiry help prioritize users’ needs and challenges, identify new opportunities, and ensure alignment of product and strategy roadmaps with market demands. 6. Empathy Building Direct observation helps teams develop empathy for users by experiencing and understanding their challenges firsthand. Use Cases and an Idea Delta Think uses a Contextual Inquiry methodology to apply the principles above in several different types of projects: Understanding specialized work processes and designing complex systems or workflows Exploring new product opportunities Redesigning existing products Informing processes and policies One way Delta Think can use Contextual Inquiry to help publishers is around the use of AI by researchers and authors. For example, before developing any guidelines, it is critical that publishers first understand how these tools are being used. Using Contextual Inquiry to observe how researchers and authors are currently using AI allows you to build policies that address specific use cases and provide meaningful guidelines based on actual behaviors. At Delta Think, we know how powerful a tool Contextual Inquiry can be for creating a user-centered culture grounded in decisions based on real-world insights and observations. We specialize in uncovering evidence for our clients, discovering what that evidence means for them, and using the knowledge gained to build customer-driven products, policies, and actionable business and publishing strategies. Ready to start the conversation? Please reach out today to discuss how our market research expertise, including Contextual Inquiry, can help your organization unlock key insights to support development and growth.

In March 2025, we looked at the latest Article Processing Charges (APCs) . This month we focus on how prices have risen relative to inflation. As APC price increases fall back to trend, what does this mean in real terms? Background Each year we survey the list Article Processing Charges (APCs) of more than 30 major and significant publishers. Going back to 2015, the dataset includes more than 20,000 unique titles and 150,000 title per year combinations. Going into 2025, we saw price increases fall back to long-term trends from their unusually high increases in 2024. Fully OA (“gold”) journal list prices across our sample rose by around 6.5%, compared with a 9.5% increase this time last year. Hybrid list prices rose by an average of 3%, compared with 4.2%. Last year’s price rises were above long term trends, but overall we found they were rising below inflation. How does this hold for this year’s price increases? We again use the global Consumer Price Index (CPI) as our inflation index, as we consider it to represent the most realistic view of our marketplace. Prices exclude zero APCs, so we can see the effects for instances when publishers choose to charge APCs. Are APCs becoming cheaper or more expensive? The chart below shows how increases in all list APCs work out in real terms for both hybrid and fully OA journals.

We are proud to share a video recording of our March News & Views companion online discussion forum! Join us to hear the latest trends around APC data, including APCs for both fully OA and hybrid journals. We'll talk about what we're seeing in relation to recent years and discuss the broader context for the APC market. If you missed the session, or if you attended and would like to watch/listen again, or share forward with friends, please feel free!

Delta Think is currently spearheading an industry market research survey to authors and researchers across the scholarly community designed to provide insight into the impact of potential US federal funding reductions on their research. The survey addresses topics such as publication volume, their ability/allowance for peer review, conference participation and attendance, influence on their research scope and topics, and more. Working in collaboration with nearly 25 scholarly societies, we are launching this initiative to capture the real-world impact of these potential changes in order to help societies better plan and support their members, researchers, and authors. The results of the survey will provide scholarly publishers with systematic, quantitative voice-of-market data to inform evidenced-based strategy development and scenario planning in a rapidly changing funding landscape and policy environment. The survey opens this week, with each participating society distributing the link to their own communities. All participating societies will receive an in-depth analysis of the full survey results, filtered by various demographics such as country, career stage, and discipline, as well as options for Delta Think to analyze their specific community data or the raw data from their specific community so they can analyze it themselves. Delta Think has designed the survey and will conduct all the analysis of the results.

This month we look at our latest data about Article Processing Charges (APCs). Per article pricing is a fundamental building block for all paid publishing models, so our review provides an invaluable insight into how costs of open access continue to evolve. APC prices in general continue to increase, but at a slower rate compared with this time last year. Important nuances in the distribution of prices continue to affect the value and cost of paid publishing models. Background Each year we survey the list Article Processing Charges (APCs) of a sample of major and significant publishers. Covering more than 20,000 titles going back to 2016, our dataset represents one of the most comprehensive reviews of open access pricing. To compare like for like, we consistently analyze non-discounted, CC BY charges. We take a snapshot at the end of every January, so we can track yearly changes while controlling for the different times of year that publishers may update prices. Our statistics exclude zero or unspecified APCs, although these are included in our underlying data. This allows us to understand trends where publishers choose to charge APCs without skewing averages. We run separate analyses around APC-free models. Headline Changes Going into 2025, we have seen APC pricing increasing but falling back to long-term trends. Fully OA APC list prices across our sample have risen by around 6.5% compared with 9.5% this time last year. Hybrid APC list prices have risen by an average of 3% compared with 4.2% this time last year. Maximum APCs for fully OA journals remain at $8,900. Maximum APCs for hybrid journals now top out at $12,690 (up $400 from last year). Big jumps in prices happened last year, driven by high inflation. In 2020-2021 prices were driven up when high-impact journals began offering OA options for the first time. In both cases, increases subsequently fell back to averages. Underlying trends continue. There are around 2.6x more hybrid journals than fully OA ones, down from 2.9x a year ago. Hybrid journals follow (or, rather, set) a similar pattern to the market overall. On average, fully OA prices are around 64% of those of hybrids. This is a couple of percentage points higher than long term trends. Around 31% of our sample of fully OA journals charge no APCs. (We have separately analyzed the number of articles in OA journals.) Price rises vary significantly by discipline. Arts & Humanities and Social Sciences have seen particularly large average increases, especially in fully OA journal prices. Price Distribution Market-wide headline price changes mask important nuances. We have discussed previously that the most important nuance lies in the spread of prices within a given publisher’s portfolio. For example, if the bulk of a publisher’s journals lie toward the lower end of its pricing, with just a few journals priced at the high end, the average (mean) price will be higher than most authors pay. The following figures show how the spread of prices plays out in the market across our sample of publishers. The figures are outlines of histograms, showing how many titles sit in various price bands over the successive years of data we have curated. The red line shows the most recent year’s prices. The lines become greener as they go further back in time. Subscribers to Delta Think’s Data and Analytics Tool can see full details of axes. Hybrid Prices The spread of price bands for hybrid journals is shown in Figure 1 below.

User information needs as well as funding models are evolving rapidly, as evidenced by Clarivate’s recent move to phase out perpetual access purchases for print, eBooks, and digital collections by the end of 2025. Taking a hard look at how these assets contribute to your portfolio and overall organizational strategy has never been more critical. A holistic books program assessment can help you think intentionally about how books and book-based content can help meet customer and market needs. Publishing and Product Strategy A market-driven publishing and product strategy begins with an understanding of customer information needs. What markets, segments, information needs, and challenges are present? How can customer information needs be addressed? What role can our book content play? How can we differentiate our solutions? Can our book content contribute to a unique value proposition? Thinking creatively about how your content meets market needs is critical; think solutions, not printed pages and chapters. Commercial Strategy A detailed commercial strategy, supported by proper resources, is fundamental to success. Leveraging a clear understanding of customer preferences and delivering messaging that resonates with your specific market segments and use cases is essential. What are the best methods to generate market awareness? When and how should we communicate with key audiences? What messages resonate best? What sales and marketing capabilities do we have internally? Where do we need to partner to reach core audiences? How do we meet global needs? Do we have the appropriate access, pricing, and distribution models in place to meet customer expectations? What do we need to do directly? Where should we cultivate successful channel partnerships? And you don’t have to go it alone; a commercial strategy is best formulated and executed by a combination of internal and external resources. Technology Infrastructure Is your technology optimized to support your book program? From agile content management systems to product platforms to customer relationship management tools, the right tools enable your content and commercial strategy. What systems do we need to ensure efficiency in our publishing processes and quality and integrity in our content? What technologies and platforms do we need to build market-responsive products? What systems do we need to communicate effectively and meaningfully with our customers, including authors? Are we best served by building these systems or partnering? Successfully integrating and leveraging new technologies, such as AI, requires a fundamental understanding of markets and customer information needs . The Numbers Financial metrics are a key measure of the health of any program. An in-depth assessment of a program’s recent performance is a vital tool to help identify strengths, weaknesses, and gaps, and help to surface areas for improvement and corrective action. A financial analysis will clarify: What is our book and content annual output? Is it sufficient to support our strategy and meet customer and market needs? What is our cost structure? Our pricing strategy? Do they align with industry and market norms and expectations? Do we have the appropriate mix of internal and external resources in place to support our strategy? How can we best align our financial performance to contribute to the organization’s larger strategy? Beyond red ink or black ink, financial analysis will provide answers to these questions. Assessing Your Book Program Delta Think partners with publishers to do the foundational analysis necessary to understand how your book and book-based content can be a vital part of your content portfolio and support your organization’s goals and objectives. Our processes, including program benchmarking, stakeholder interviews, surveys, and workshops, combined with expert landscape research and analysis ensure you are building a content strategy that is market-focused and customer-driven. Contact Delta Think at info@deltathink.com to set up a time for a video call to learn more. We will also be attending the London Book Fair, March 11-13, 2025, if you’d like to schedule an in-person chat.